Theory and Policy Seminar, Series 215

National Academy of Development and Strategy (NADS), RUC

Theory and Policy Seminar, Series 215

Trade Competition and the “Great Migration” : The Impact of Soybean Import Shock in China

Reported by:LIN Faqin  (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University)

Moderator: LIU Qing (National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China)

Time: Jun 11, 2025  14:00-15:30

Venue: Room 1133, 11th Floor, Lide Building

Abstract:

As the largest soybean importing country, this study empirically investigates and quantitatively analyzes the migration effects of soybean import shocks in China, with a focus on the three northeastern provinces—the country's primary soybean-producing region. By constructing the exogenous prefecture-level soybean import shock and using individual-level migration data from the Population Census, we find that soybean import shocks significantly drive rural out-migration, with a one standard deviation increase in soybean import shock raising the probability of out-migration by 4.25%. These shocks disrupt local soybean production, compelling individuals, particularly low-educated and young farmers, to seek employment opportunities in more developed regions, predominantly as migrant workers. Quantitative analysis reveals that soybean import shocks have resulted in a 0.18% increase in the net population outflow rate in Northeast China, alongside a 1.24% decline in real income. Furthermore, most cities in the region experienced reduced real income and elevated net outflow rates following the shock. Cities with higher dependency on the soybean industry, such as Heihe and Qiqihar in Heilongjiang, face more severe welfare losses and greater risks of population outflows.