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OctThucydides Trap is a political metaphor saying that when a rising power challenges an established power, the most likely outcome is war. This is based on what the ancient Greek historian Thucydides explained “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” In this hypothesis, there are two factors working simultaneously. One is the narrowing gap between the dominated power and the rising power, the other is the fear and anxiety felt by the dominated power.
Peaceful transition from the UK to the United States
Generally speaking, the currently dominated power would naturally fear to be replaced by the rising power; however, there were a few exceptions in history when the hegemony didn’t worry about the rising of another country and even willingly gave way to the new power. For instance, before the First World War, the UK as the hegemony since the industrial revolution was confronted by newly-rising America and Germany. Even with furious collisions, the UK gradually retreated from the Americas and worked on improving its relationship with the U.S.A, thus laid the foundation for a special Anglo-American relations. By the end of the Second World War, Britain has fully recognized the decline of its power and handed over the leading position to the United States in order to compete with the communism. The hegemony transition from the UK to the U.S.A was therefore completed in peace.
Three reasons are behind this peaceful transition: one, Britain felt less threatened by the rise of America than that of Germany because of the longer distance between the two countries. Two, the United States buried itself in doing business after independence with no interest to pursue the hegemony. It then wasn’t a challenger to Great Britain. Three, the U.S.A shared similar political system and same values with the UK, therefore, the former was more like a successor than a challenger to the latter.
At present, the international community has gone fundamental changes since the world wars. Different from the situation that Athens and Sparta were in, major powers like China, the United States, and Russia now are the countries with nuclear weapons, and never a rational leader would like to bear the consequences of a nuclear war. In addition, with the rapid development of globalization and information technology, the international world is becoming a global village where trade, production and finance could flow around the world. In economy, each country is more interdependent with another. China-U.S. trade has increased from over 5 million USD at the beginning of bilateral ties to more than 580 billion USD now. Therefore, the Sino-America trade war can only end up with lose-lose situation. Then why the Trump administration is still bent on fighting a trade war with China? Will China-U.S. relations move toward the Thucydides Trap or was they already in it?
China aims to stabilize its relationship with America
First of all, even if the United States has taken measures to suppress and contain the rise of China, the nature of this so-called Thucydides Trap would still be different from that of Athens and Sparta, of the UK and Germany. The possibility of a China-U.S. war is zero. As both countries are major nuclear powers, their confrontation can only be soft even if they both deem each other as rivals or adversaries. It would like what the Soviet Union and the U.S.A has done during the cold war, China and America would have military competitions, fight for influence sphere and rules, but less likely to have direct hot war.
Secondly, China is now America’s main competitor, but not the only one. Japan, Germany and India who have developed rapidly since 1970s are all potential threats to the United States. Typical Thucydides Trap includes only two major powers with mutual hostility, but current China-U.S. relations in such a complex international landscape doesn’t represent the same thing.
Last but not least, China doesn’t see the United States as enemy. Being the second largest economy in the world, China is still far behind the United States. The top priorities of China are to solve its own problems such as domestic reforms, national unity, and better relationship with neighbors. Besides, there is no need for China to get itself into trouble by rivaling with America because it also gains benefit from the US-established international order. As one permanent member of UN Security Council and beneficiary of economic globalization, China won’t bother to displace the existing international order with another. All in all, China won’t drive the bilateral relations toward the Thucydides Trap but to set it on a stable course.
(Song Wei is the Research Fellow of National Academy of Development and Strategy, and the Professor at School of International Studies, RUC)
Original link: http://paper.wenweipo.com/2018/10/03/PL1810030003.htm?from=singlemessage
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