06
JunGlobally, the aging society is defined as the share of population aged over 60 reaches 10 percent of the whole population or those aged over 65 reaches 7 percent. According to this definition, the world has entered an era of aging society in around 2010. World Population Prospects: the 2017 Revision released by the United Nations shows that, the number of older persons — those who aged 60 years or over — is expected to rise from 962 million globally in 2017 to nearly 2 billion in 2050, which will account for around 20 percent of the whole population. Longer life expectancy and decline of fertility rate (fertility desire) are the main reasons behind aging population. Countries around the world have taken a series of measures to encourage fertility, while it only helps slow the aging speed, not reverse the trend. As technology develops, particularly with a promising breakthrough of modern medicine and bioscience, aging population will grow to be a new normal.
Technology Development Generates A Turn in Global Population Policy.
Before the mid-seventeenth century Industrial Revolution in Britain, global population grew at a rather slow rate. The whole population was 1 billion in 1830. After that, the speed was soaring. The number of population took 100 years to reach 2 billion, then for every 1 billion growth, it took 30, 14, 13, and 12 years. By October 1999, the population size was 6 billion. The sharp increase raises concerns about food security, poverty and energy shortage and other problems. As the “Malthusian Trap” indicates, population grows at geometrical ratio, while the means of subsistence at far smaller arithmetical ratio. Thus, the excessive population has to be eliminated in a way.
Therefore, before the 1980s, problems such as food security, poverty and energy shortage brought by population had been attached greater attention. While the emerging energy technology such as nuclear and solar power renders a solution for energy supply. The application of genetic technology and the facilitation of global trading of food secure food production. Internet narrows temporal and spatial distance, leading to a diversification in value orientation, as getting married and raising children is not the necessary option of life. “Feeding all the human beings” ceases being a concern, the challenge of an aging population becomes the most worried problem instead.
In 1982, from July 26 to August 6, the United Nations convened the first World Assembly on Aging, in which The Vienna International Plan of Action on Ageing was produced. It pronounced its aims to “strengthen the capacities of countries to deal effectively with the aging of their populations and with the special concerns and needs of their elderly, and to promote an appropriate international response to the issues of aging through action for the establishment of the new international economic order and increased international technical cooperation, particularly among the developing countries themselves”.
Technology Advancement is the Decisive Factor to Solve the Aging Problem.
From the perspective of the global response to the aging of the population, scientific and technological progress will become a decisive factor. The new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation are in the ascendant, bringing about the transformation of traditional production, life and social methods, leading to the diversification of old-age care methods and promoting the upgrading of old-age services. Aging science and technology innovation is a product of a new round of scientific and technological revolution represented by mobile Internet, big data, artificial intelligence, sensors, brain science, etc., combined with the concept of “healthy aging” and “positive aging”, featuring new, interdisciplinary, potential and environment-friendly, etc. From the perspective of the development of large-scale technology products in the world, Japan, the European Union and other countries are far ahead. The aging technology industry has become a strategic emerging concern and support of developed countries.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the number of elderly people aged 60 and over in China at the end of 2018 was 249 million, accounting for 17.9% of China's total population. According to UN data, it accounts for 25.8% of the total number of elderly people aged 60 and over. It is estimated that by 2050, the total number of elderly people aged 60 and over in China will reach 487 million, the number of elderly people over 60 years old will reach 2.02 billion, and the number of elderly people over 60 years old in China will account for 24.1% of the world's elderly. It can be seen that in the next 30 years, China's total population of about 500 million, accounting for about a quarter of the world's elderly population, will enable China to have the largest market for aging consumers, huge market scale advantages and massive data and localization characteristics of services and afterwards. These advantages make China have the opportunity to cultivate a leap-forward development that is unique in the world or can affect the development of the world's aging industries.
Judging from China's actual national conditions, the root cause of the undeveloped aging care market is that high housing prices, high land prices and labor costs lead to the cost of old-age services and the ability of the elderly to pay upside down. Moreover, the further increase in labor costs is inevitable, and it is expected that the decline is a fantasy. Therefore, the use of the Internet and other scientific and technological means to achieve accurate matching of the supply and demand of old-age services, reduce the dependence on housing and other old-age care facilities, reduce the dependence on human resources by using various aging care facilities and service robots, and improve the safety and reliability of services, which are effective means and inevitable choice. The advancement of science and technology is the only way for China to successfully cope with the aging of the population.
In 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Health and Family Planning Commission jointly issued the “Smart Health and Pension Industry Development Action Plan (2017-2020)”, and the State Council issued “Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development of the Rehabilitation Aids Industry”. In 2018, the Ministry of Science and Technology began to implement the key project of “Active Health and Ageing Technology Response”. However, in general, China's strategic top-level design for aging science and technology innovation is insufficient, insufficient attention is paid to basic and forward-looking areas, research and development resources are divided, support policies are fragmented, and technology markets and technology-based enterprises are stunted. Capital is more invested into aging care real estate and aging care communities, the old service technology products are often short-lived, difficult to promote and apply. China's Internet technology develops rapidly in the field of commodity trading, financial services and other fields, but the development in the field of aged care services is still not enough.
It Is Imperative to Build an Aging Science and Technology Innovation System.
It is suggested that scientific and technological progress will support the development of the old-age industry in the national strategic level, further strengthen the top-level design of the old-age science and technology innovation system, and improve the old-age science and technology innovation policy system. The development of aging technology is an inevitable requirement for improving the quality of life and realizing the all-round development of people; it is an objective need to improve supply quality, stimulate consumption, promote industrial upgrading, and realize the transformation of old and new kinetic energy; it is the inevitable requirement to ensure the safety of the elderly and the family and achieve social harmony and stability. The safety of life and property of the elderly is related to households. The key technologies surrounding the health and safety services of the elderly, artificial intelligence, and brain science are related to national security.
First, strengthen the construction of the innovation system. For example, in the construction of national manufacturing innovation centers, national engineering research centers, national enterprise technology centers, national key laboratories, engineering laboratories, etc., it is necessary to fully consider the technological needs brought about by the aging of the population.
Second, strengthen the coordination of policies and resources. In view of the special nature of aging science and technology research and development chain, involving many disciplines, and integrated development, systematically research and accelerate the formulation of relevant policies, promote the integration of multi-sectoral, multidisciplinary, industry-university-research, and build a basic public service platform, such as the establishment of comprehensive aging basic information database, rehabilitation aid performance testing public laboratory, and so on.
Third, make breakthroughs in key areas and key links. We must concentrate our efforts, organize joint research, master a number of core technologies with independent intellectual property rights, cultivate a group of internationally competitive technology-based aged care service enterprises, and cultivate a group of leading cadres of science and technology to reserve for the arrival of the aging technological revolution. .
Fourth, actively participate in the formulation of international standards and rules. Encourage scientific research institutions and technology enterprises to go out and introduce them, play the role of professional industry associations and other organizations, and participate in international exchanges and cooperation. Adhere to openness and tolerance, and gradually integrate China's products and technical specifications into the international system, and even become an internationally accepted industry technical standard and norm.
Fifth, optimize the environment for innovation and entrepreneurship. For example, we will improve government procurement, the first (set) insurance compensation, and the deduction of research and development expenses, and promote the construction of the “double innovation” platform for aging technology.
(Huang Shisong is the Chief Research Fellow of NADS, RUC.)
Opinions