ZHU Dan: Restructuring Investment Paradigms: The Philosophical Transition of Investment Amid Technological Revolution and Geopolitical Fractures

Zhu Dan, a researcher at the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China, published an article on China Development Network titled “Restructuring Investment Paradigms: The Philosophical Transition of Investment Amid Technological Revolution and Geopolitical Fractures”. The core points are as follows:

The global capital market is undergoing a paradigm revolution, rendering traditional investment logic increasingly obsolete. Technological leaps and geopolitical restructuring are redefining the rules of value creation, making the old models of linear growth and globalization dividends unsustainable. Investors must reconstruct their cognitive frameworks. At the 25th Yabuli Annual Investment Forum, the author engaged in discussions with experts and summarized key insights.

In technological investment, traditional “technology maturity curves” must be surpassed to establish a more precise evaluation system based on three key criteria. First, the test of rigid demand—successful technologies must create irreversible market dependencies rather than merely demonstrating technical superiority. Second, the ability to cross the engineering gap—many lab innovations struggle to transition to industrialization, so evaluations should focus on breakthroughs in processes, supply chain integration, and large-scale production rather than lab performance alone. Third, geopolitical compatibility—investors must assess the international adaptability of technological routes, as exemplified by the U.S. CHIPS Act. These three criteria help investors see through technology bubbles and construct a dynamic evaluation framework integrating market, technology, and geopolitics to accurately determine a technology’s true value.

The retreat of globalization is shifting industrial priorities from efficiency to security, requiring three key evolutions in investment strategy. First, transitioning from linear layouts to networked ecosystems—cross-regional investments help build resilient value networks that can withstand geopolitical shocks. Second, rediscovering geopolitical arbitrage opportunities—technological blockades often spur alternative innovations, and investors should identify undervalued technological pathways emerging from sanctions. Third, redefining security margins—as security becomes a production factor, its investment is no longer just a cost but a long-term competitive advantage. This strategic transformation shifts the focus from pursuing “globalization dividends” to cultivating regional resilience, creating a dynamic and balanced value-capturing network in a fragmented world.

Traditional VC’s “casino logic” is failing in the face of accelerated technology cycles and increasing geopolitical risks, necessitating a threefold innovation in risk pricing. First, time elasticity reconstruction—with faster technological iteration and longer commercialization cycles, a “dual-clock” management approach is required, involving agile decision-making to capture technological windows while maintaining long-term patience to cultivate markets. Second, expanded risk factors—traditional risk assessments need to incorporate new variables such as geopolitics, technological ethics, and supply chain resilience. Lastly, hedging strategy upgrades, where “technology volatility hedges geopolitical volatility”. The core of this new paradigm lies in embracing uncertainty and using structural design to convert systemic risks into differentiated sources of returns.

As technological progress can lead to ethical crises, capital must redefine the boundaries of value creation, ensuring the coexistence of commercial rationality and ethical standards. First, the quantified revolution of technology for good—ethical issues are becoming tangible risks, with leading institutions developing “technology ethics assessment matrices” to quantify moral standards. Second, ESG shifting from a cost center to a value engine, with the carbon value chain sharing model transforming sustainable investments into business-driven dynamics, proving that social responsibility can drive business growth. Lastly, reconstruction of bottom-line thinking, where investors must establish ethical boundaries for technologies to avoid potential regulatory and moral risks. This value evolution shows that in times of civilizational transition, the most vital business models emerge from the balance between efficiency and ethics.

In summary, the greatest challenge for today’s investors is not finding new opportunities but reconstructing their cognitive framework to adapt to the new era where technology, geopolitics, and ethics intertwine. The future winners must complete three cognitive leaps: First, from linear thinking to complex systems thinking, understanding the dynamic symbiosis of technology, geopolitics, and ethics; Second, from static evaluation to dynamic resilience building, creating anti-fragility in uncertainty; and Third, from commercial rationality to civilizational awareness, guiding capital toward sustainable development. Only those who dare to discard old maps and rebuild their cognitive logic will pave the way for the value frontiers of the future amid chaos.

(Translated by ZHANG Yuqing; Proofread by YANG Fanxin)