25
Jan
On January 9, 2018, The US House of Representatives has unanimously passed the Taiwan Travel Act, legislation that encourages visits between Taiwan and the US at all levels, including high-ranking officials, which attracts much attention recently. Li Wei, deputy director at Center for International Strategies, NADS, and associate professor at School of International Studies, RUC, during a CRNTT interview, pointed out that even though the bill is non-binding, which only represent the views of the US House of Representatives and the administration does not need to enforce the act. However, the administration will suffer more pressure once the U.S. Senate has passed similar bills, which may lead to serious consequences. The exchange of visits means that the United States and Taiwan will resume official contacts to some extent, and will violate The Three Joint Communiqués.
Li stressed that the failure of "Engage" Strategy for China forced America to find an alternative strategy. This means that the U.S. policy towards China is now facing a directional change. The question, here, is that what will be exactly reflected from such change? The answer will gradually emerge in 2018. It is predictable that the Sino-US Relationship will be tougher in 2018 in terms of many issues. From the beginning of the New Year, we can see from the legislation of the United States Congress that China and the United States will face many difficulties on the Taiwan issue, which has been the first thorny issue that erupted in 2018. The U.S. may try to make some troubles on the Taiwan issue, and that will once again become a sensitive issue to Sino-US Relationship.
America Using the Taiwan Issue to Contain China
“This is a very important but extremely unfriendly message sent by the U.S. Congress, which reflects the American society, not only the Congress, has tried to make troubles on the Taiwan Issue and contained China by playing the ‘Taiwan Card'," Li said to CRNTT.
In Li’s point of view, although the Taiwan Travel Act is non-binding, which only represent the views of the US House of Representatives and the administration does not need to enforce the act. However, the administration will suffer much more pressure once the U.S. Senate has passed similar bills, which may lead to serious consequences. The exchange of visits means that the United States and Taiwan will resume some official contacts to some extent, and that violates The Three Joint Communiqués.
How far will the Taiwan Travel Act go?
According to Li, The Three Joint Communiqués positions the US-Taiwan Relationship as a non-governmental relationship with no official contacts. "Once the bill has put pressure on President Trump, some actions might be taken, and that means the restoration of the official relations between the U.S. and Taiwan. For example, in the 1990s, the American government's decision to allow Lee Teng-hui to visit the mainland China was, to a large extent, made under the pressure of the Congress.”
So how far will the Taiwan Travel Act go? In Li’s point, it is not yet clear. However, it could be affirmed that "the Taiwan Travel Act shows the dissatisfaction of the domestic American society towards China. Such dissatisfaction, especially the anxiety caused by the peaceful rise of China and the decline of America, has finally forced America to play “Taiwan card” to the Chinese government. This is exactly a political act.”
Before the US House of Representatives passed the Taiwan Travel Act on January 9, President Trump on December 12, 2017, signed National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018, promising on the mutual docking of the US-Taiwan naval vessels and inviting the military forces of Taiwan to participate in military exercises, such as the “Red Flag” exercises. Another example is the new National Security Strategy (NSS) unveiled on December 18, 2017, by President Trump, which reaffirmed its commitment to providing defensive weapons to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act.
Those facts, according to Prof. Li, show that America may try to make troubles on the issue of Taiwan in 2018. Despite the Taiwan Issue, China and the United States are likely to have fierce clashes on many issues concerning trade, the economy as well as regional security.
In the latter half of Bush's administration, Taiwan was no longer an important issue between China and the United States. This is because China and the United States had reached some basic consensus on the issue. However, after Trump winning the presidential election, Taiwan will most likely become a key issue between China and the United States in the future. This also means the return of the Taiwan issue in Sino-U.S. Relations, which is a very important trend that deserves our close attention.
Li Wei also mentioned that according to his recent study in Washington, he found out that the American political elites, whether they are Democrats or Republicans, have reached a basic consensus on the China issue that China is a strategic rival to the United States.
Failure of Engage, New Actions Will be taken
Prof. Li analyzed that after World War II, the United States has two major foreign strategies: one is the "Contain" strategy aimed at the Soviet Union, the other is the "Engage" strategy with China. The former succeed while the “Engage” strategy failed. China has not embarked on the road to the United States, that is, it has not been "peacefully evolved" by the United States.
In this sense, the U.S. policy towards China is now facing a directional change. The question, here, is that what will be exactly reflected from such change? The answer will gradually emerge in 2018.
It is predictable that the Sino-US Relationship will be tougher in 2018 in terms of many issues. From the beginning of the New Year, we can see from the legislation of the United States Congress that China and the United States will face many difficulties on the Taiwan issue, which has been the first thorny issue that erupted in 2018.
“In the future, the relationship between China and the United States will not be optimistic. This stems from the failure of the United States to believe that its strategy of "engage" China has failed to shape China into a democracy. The United States has completely shattered the illusion of China and no longer positions China as a stakeholder but a real strategic competitor." said Li Wei.
The author is the deputy director at Center for International Strategies, NADS, and an associate professor at School of International Studies, RUC
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