Macro-forecast Center

The Macro-forecast Center, taking China’s macro-economy for its study object and large sample micro-data and macro-data for the basis, adopts advanced econometric techniques such as the forecasting methods of mixed frequency and model averaging to conduct quantitative forecast on some key economic indicators in China’s macro-economy. The Center also assesses and analyzes policies based on China’s future development demands so as to provide scientific and decision-making bases for China’s development strategy. Particularly, the Center conducts research on the statistical inference issues of the DSGE model and develops such model with Chinese characteristics based on China’s national situation, providing solid model-support decision-making tools for China’s policy analysis. Existing researchers in the Center come from a range of schools and departments of RUC, including Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, the School of Economics and the School of Finance, Tsinghua University, Peking University and Wuhan University. All of the researchers hold a doctor’s degree of overseas elite universities, have sound basic abilities on measurement theory research and have mastered advanced predictive parsing methods. They have rendered some great academic achievements. For example, they have published over 50 pieces of paper on top-rate international SSCI journals such as Journal of Econometrics, Econometrical Theory, Political Analysis, Journal of Dynamic Economics and Control, Journal of Future Market and Quantitative Finance and domestic journals such as the Economic Research Journal, Management World and the Journal of World Economy.

Director

Li Yong

Assistant Dean of Hanqing Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, RUC; Director, Professor; Doctoral Supervisor of the Master in Finance Program; selected into the MOE New Century Talent Support Program; appraised as Beijing Young Talent; achieved the bachelor’s degree at Jiangsu Institute of Education of Nanjing Normal University in 2000; achieved the master’s degree at Southeast University in 2004; achieved the doctor’s degree at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2007; Post-doctoral Fellow at SimKee Boon Institute for Financial Economics of Singapore Management University during 2011 and 2012. Li’s areas of interest include Bayesian macro-econometrics and financial econometrics. He has published nearly 30 pieces of academic paper on excellent domestic and overseas journals such as Journal of Econometrics (3 pieces), Journal of Future Market, and Quantitative Finance, among which 20 pieces are SSCI/SCI paper. He has chaired multiple projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and provincial and ministry-level foundations.

Members: Pang Xun, Huang Zhuo, Xu Jiliang, Liu Xiangbo, Dai Tiantian, He Chao, Shi Weidong, Luo Yu, Zeng Tao, Ge Xinyu and Xie Tian