NADS Held “Monthly Labor Force Survey and Unemployment Rate Survey Related Issues in China” Seminar

On May 18, the seminar on "Monthly Labor Force Survey and Unemployment Rate Survey Related Issues in China " organized by the Labor Market Research Center of National Academy of Development and Strategy was held at the National Academy of Development and Strategy. At the meeting, Li Zhilong, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics and leader of the Employment Big Data Group, gave a detailed introduction to the labor force survey and investigation of the unemployment rate in China. The conference was chaired by Sun Wenkai, NADS Research Fellow and Associate Professor of the School of Economics. Zeng Xiangquan, Professor at the School of Labor and Human Resources at Renmin University of China, and Wang Meiyan, Research Fellow at the Institute of Population and Labor Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Wang Weidong, Deputy Director of Chinese Center for Data and Investigations, Renmin University of China, and Professor Zhao Zhong, Director of the Labor Market Research Center of NADS and Professor of School of Labor and Human Resources RUC, and other experts and professors conducted in-depth discussions and made suggestions on how to further improve the labor force survey in China.

On April 17, 2018, the National Bureau of Statistics officially released the unemployment rate survey of urban areas in China. The unemployment rate survey of urban areas is a common indicator of the ILO. It reflects the ratio of urban resident economically active population to the number of unemployed urban residents who are eligible for unemployment. This indicator covers the unemployment of the agricultural transfer population. From January to April of this year, the unemployment rate in the cities and towns surveyed nationwide was 5.0%, 5.0%, 5.1%, and 4.9%, respectively, down 0.2, 0.4, 0.1, and 0.1 percentage points from the same month of last year.

As one of the four macroeconomic indicators that parallels the economic growth rate, the price index, and the international balance of payments, the survey of unemployment rates in cities and towns plays an important role in monitoring macroeconomic performance and reflecting employment unemployment.

Li Zhilong stated at the meeting that the survey unemployment rate refers to the percentage of the unemployed population calculated from the labor force survey (the sum of the employed population and the unemployed population). At present, the level of unemployment in urban areas in China is lower than the global average and lower than the average level in developing countries and regions. The employment situation has remained stable.

Li Zhilong introduced that in 2005, the Bureau of Statistics began its first labor force survey and conducted two investigations a year. Starting in 2009, monthly labor force surveys were conducted in 31 major cities. In 2013, the survey was expanded to 65 major cities. By July 2015, the scope of the labor force survey has been further expanded to all prefecture-level cities in the country.

Li Zhilong introduced that in the urban unemployment survey rate in China, the definition of unemployed people is mainly based on three criteria: first, no income and remuneration for more than one hour during the reference period; second, willing to work, that is, it must be looking for jobs actively within three months; third, there is the right job to start work within two weeks. It is worth noting that in the second criterion, the "four weeks" of international practice was relaxed to "three months." Li Zhilong explained that this is taking into account the Chinese human society, and the situation in which relatives and friends are looking for a job will be relatively large, which will increase the time cost.

In addition, the registered unemployment rate and the surveyed unemployment rate are different in the survey objects, survey methods, index meanings, and calculation methods. It is indispensable to investigate the unemployment rate in a comprehensive, accurate, and timely manner that reflects China's macroeconomic performance, labor market resource allocation, macro service management, and scientific decision-making. Registered unemployment rates are important in the government's formulation of employment policies and providing accurate employment services.

Experts attending the meeting conducted in-depth discussions on the survey of unemployment rates and related labor force surveys in China.

Zeng Xiangquan pointed out that the probability of unemployment occurring due to the multiplication of the probability of unemployment and the duration of unemployment is the real unemployment rate. The main problem in China is not the high unemployment rate but the lack of employment. In addition, he pointed out that non-sampling errors are often more difficult to solve than sampling errors.

Wang Meiyan emphasized the importance of publicizing the labor force participation rate. She believes that in the context of the low unemployment rate in China, there is still a drop in the labor participation rate. Wang Weidong believes that it is important to pay attention to sample rotation and stratified sampling and extend the panel data survey as possible to avoid underestimation of the sample size of specific groups of people. Zhao Zhong suggested that different indicators that meet China's national conditions should be selected and investigated in different months to enrich the availability of data without affecting the overall module; in addition, data from various government departments need to be further communicated in order to achieve mutual complementarity and calibration.