Theory and Policy Seminar, Series 227

National Academy of Development and Strategy (NADS), RUC

Theory and Policy Seminar, Series 227

Analysis of Risk Spillover in China’s Industrial Chain under Extreme Heat Events Shocks

National Academy of Development and Strategy (NADS), RUC

Reported by: JING Zhongbo （Central University of Finance and Economics School of Management Science and Engineering)

Moderator: FANG Yi (National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China)

Time: Nov 21, 2025  10:30-12:00

Venue: Room 1133, 11th Floor, Lide Building

Abstract:

Frequent extreme heat events have posed a severe threat to the resilience and security of China’s industrial supply chains. Using quarterly data of Chinese listed companies from 2013 to 2022, this study constructs a ∆CoVaR measure to capture the level of risk spillover from upstream industries to downstream firms, and systematically investigates the formation and amplification mechanisms of supply chain risk spillovers under extreme heat shocks.

The results show that under extreme heat conditions, rising climate risk in upstream industries significantly increases risk for downstream firms through input-output linkages, suppresses their financial performance, and tightens their liquidity conditions. Moreover, these effects exhibit long-term persistence. Further analysis indicates that carbon-risk-exposure mechanisms and trade-credit mechanisms serve as key channels that amplify the supply chain risk spillover effect.

Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the supply chain risk spillover effect is particularly pronounced when upstream industries are non-heat-sensitive, and among downstream firms operating in high-carbon industries, with lower levels of green transition, higher asset specificity, higher industry concentration, and state-owned status.

This study not only uncovers the transmission patterns of supply chain risks under extreme heat shocks, but also provides scientific evidence to support policymakers in formulating strategies to cope with extreme heat and in strengthening industrial-chain resilience and security.

Reporter’s Bio:

JING Zhongbo is an Associate Professor and Doctoral Supervisor. He currently serves as the Associate Dean of the School of Management Science and Engineering at the Central University of Finance and Economics (CUFE), as well as the Director of the Institute of Private Equity Investment. He has been recognized as an instructor of a National First-Class Undergraduate Course, an Outstanding Undergraduate Competition Advisor for Beijing universities, a Beijing Teaching Excellence Award recipient for curriculum-based ideological education, a key member of Beijing’s Outstanding Undergraduate Education Team, and a core contributor to the top-prize-winning teaching achievement awards jointly granted by the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and CUFE.

His research focuses on financial technology and risk management, corporate finance and investment, big data analyses, and intelligent decision-making. He has led projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (both General and Young Scholar programs), the Beijing Social Science Foundation, the CUFE Young Research Innovation Team program, and the “Young Talents” program, among others.

To date, he has published more than 60 academic papers, including in Nature sub-journals, Management World, Journal of Management Sciences in China, The Journal of World Economy, China Economic Quarterly, Risk Analysis, and Energy. His publications include the textbooks ESG Investment and Investment Value Assessment, the English monograph Banking Crises: Identification, Propagation and Prediction, and the Chinese monograph Systemic Risk in the Banking Industry: Mechanisms, Influencing Factors, Quantitative Identification and Regulation. He has also contributed to China’s Disciplinary Development Strategy-Systems Engineering and Innovative Development of Infrastructure Investment and Financing in China.

He currently serves as an editorial board member of Humanities & Social Sciences Communications (a Nature sub-journal), as well as a youth editorial board member for China Finance Review International and Technology Economics. He has received honors including “CNKI Highly Cited Scholar (2024)”, “CNKI Most Influential Scholar”, and “Top 1% CNKI Highly Cited Scholar”. His policy recommendations have been acknowledged by national leaders.

Event Registration Link:

https://docs.qq.com/form/page/DZENIVU1OWmhOdEda