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NovNational Academy of Development and Strategy (NADS), RUC
Theory and Policy Seminar, Series 226
Brain gain from the US-China trade war: Evidence from China
National Academy of Development and Strategy (NADS), RUC
Reported by: ZHAO Yang （Central University of Finance and Economics School of Innovation and Development)
Moderator: FANG Yi (National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China)
Time: Nov 21, 2025 9:00-10:30
Venue: Room 1133, 11th Floor, Lide Building
Abstract:
The US-China trade war has led to significant increases in tariffs on imports and exports, creating substantial challenges for Chinese firms. This study investigates how Chinese listed firms respond to disruptions in international technology transfer during the US–China trade war by adjusting their managerial personnel strategies. Using a difference-in-differences approach and firm-level data from 2014 to 2022, we document that US tariff hikes significantly increase the employment of managers with foreign experience, particularly those with US backgrounds. While both US and Chinese tariffs encourage such hiring, the effect is stronger and statistically significant for US tariffs. Firms most exposed to high-tech tariffs demonstrate the largest increases in recruiting internationally experienced managers, who are often placed in key positions such as finance and general management. We further show that the influx of foreign-experienced managers partially offsets the negative impact of trade barriers on technology transfer, as evidenced by increased domestic and international patenting and sustained citations to foreign patents. Our findings highlight the strategic role of international managerial talent in fostering firm adaptation and innovation under geopolitical shocks, and contribute novel evidence on how personnel strategies mediate the effect of trade policy uncertainty on firm-level innovation. These results have important implications for both policymakers and business leaders facing rising protectionism and global economic uncertainty.
Reporter’s Bio:
Zhao Yang is the Associate Dean of the Institute for Financial Studies at the School of Innovation and Development, Central University of Finance and Economics (CUFE), and a tenured Associate Professor. He holds a PhD in Mathematical Finance from the Adam Smith Business School at the University of Glasgow, UK, and is a Senior Big Data Analyst. His primary research areas include risk management, quantitative investment, financial technology, and sustainable finance. He has published more than 50 papers in well-known domestic and international academic journals such as Journal of Corporate Finance, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of International Money and Finance, International Journal of Forecasting, British Journal of Management, Journal of Futures Markets, Energy Economics, and Finance & Trade Economics. Some of his papers have been reprinted by Renmin University Reprints and Chinese Social Science Digest, and three have been listed as ESI Highly Cited Papers. He has also published one academic monograph.
He currently serves as Associate Editor of the SSCI Q1 journal Economic Analysis and Policy, and Special Issue Editor of the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. He previously served as Associate Editor of the internationally renowned journal Journal of Forecasting (2022-2025) and Special Issue Editor for Economic Modelling (2022-2024).
In recent years, he has led one project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), one CUFE Young Research Innovation Team project. He has also participated in two major projects funded by the National Social Science Foundation, three NSFC general projects, and multiple ministerial-level projects, with two reports adopted by national-level institutions.
He has been invited multiple times to deliver lectures in overseas training programs sponsored by the Ministry of Commerce, teaching courses on financial technology, big data analyses, and green finance to government officials from Belt and Road countries.
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