[BJDaily] SONG Wei: As Theresa May resigns, will the UK Brexit get out of the dilemma?

British Prime Minister Theresa May announced on Friday that she will resign, and in her speech she acknowledged her failure to deliver Brexit but also listed a series of achievements made by her cabinet during the last three years. May called for a united British society, only all the parties compromise can a consensus be possible, and the UK politics can function well.

After Britain's 2016 national referendum on Brexit, Theressa May took office to deal with the unexpected result. In less than three years, the Iron Lady has struggled with many setbacks in her Brexit negotiations with the EU as well as her debate with domestic opponents. Her final decision to resignation shows clearly how difficult and complex it is to simultaneously cope with international and domestic political situations.

Theressa May, different from the hardliners like former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, understands deep down in her heart the significant implications of UK’s divorce with EU, a unified big market, a political alliance and a community of shared security. As a Remainer, May has to carry out the Brexit talk, which inevitably will lead to a “sit on the fence” approach during her negotiation process. Moreover, her recent actions trying to compromise with the Labor Party decisively provoked the hard Brexiteers in the Conservative Party, ruining her hope of passing the fourth Brexit proposal in parliament. With old supporters all gone one after another, the PM alone has no choice but to resign before her term ends.

Why it is so hard for all the political parties to reach a consensus on Brexit? In the 2016 referendum, the question was simple, remain or leave? While the three-year drama fully explains that real politics is much complicated. There are obvious differences in interests and attitude between the Remainers and the Brexiteers as the former want to keep in the tariff customs union after leaving the EU market, which is unacceptable by the latter. In this sense, Theressa May seeks for a Brexit that only leave the EU to some extent.

If their differences cannot be reconciled, the UK will more likely see a “no-deal” Brexit, causing a heavy shock to the British economy. This is not the outcome most MPs in Parliament wanted, however, the rub is no party wants the worst ending yet none is willing to meet each other halfway. We can hardly explain the current situation, a tentative guess is that generally speaking as social conflicts and the mood of dissatisfaction aggravate, people are more reluctant to concede.

In fact, to remain or to leave, either way, the UK will both have advantages and disadvantages. To minimize the risk, all parties at home and abroad will have to reach a basic balance of interests and benefits. However, it is too hard to make it because Brexit is afterall a matter concerned with not only Britain but also the EU. Without a strong and charismatic leader to unite all sides together, the Brexit situation might still drag on and on after May’s resignation.

The future of Brexit will eventually depend on the result of the UK’s internal political game. The problem is that this political game might be simply a “majority tyranny” with one side’s gain at the expense of the other side’s loss. Therefore, as the Conservative fighting both internally and the Opposition, at the same time must reaching a common understanding with the EU, the possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit on October 31 is still high.

Song Wei, Research Fellow of National Academy of Development and Strategy, Professor at School of International Studies, Renmin University of China

The original article was published at here.