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MayOn May 8, US President Trump announced the unilateral withdrawal of the Iranian nuclear agreement and will impose the highest level of economic sanctions on Iran. While fulfilling his presidential campaign promises, Trump relentlessly overthrew Obama’s “diplomatic inheritance” on the Iranian nuclear issue. This behavior will trigger unpredictable geopolitical consequences in the Middle East.
First, the logic behind Trump tearing up the Iran nuclear agreement
Trump insisted that Iran’s nuclear agreement was the “worst agreement” ever since the agreement had “horrible loopholes”. To sum up, its "loopholes" include two aspects: First, the Iranian nuclear agreement has failed to curb the development of Iranian medium and long-range ballistic missile technology. Iran has advanced ballistic missile technology and has built a number of underground ballistic missile bases that integrate production, storage and launch capabilities. Its strike radius covers all military bases of the United States and Israel in the Middle East, posing a major threat to the US anti-missile system in the theater. Second, the Iranian nuclear agreement is not permanently effective. Its validity period is only 10 to 15 years. According to the agreement, Iran will reduce its enriched uranium reserves to 300 kg within the next 15 years and will drastically reduce the number of centrifuges it is operating in the next 10 years. Trump has a deeply ingrained distrust of the Iranian regime and believes that the existence of "dating clauses" can only delay Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons and cannot eliminate Iran's "nuclear capabilities."
In a word, Trump believed that the Iranian nuclear agreement can only force Iran to make "tactical" compromises in the short term, but it is difficult for Iran to make a "strategic" change (that is, abandon its nuclear program) in the long run. After Trump took office, the United States regarded Iran as one of the biggest threats in the Middle East again and chose to form an alliance with Israel and Sunni Saudi Arabia to form the "Alliance of Containing Iran." Israel and Saudi Arabia also believe that Iran’s pursuit of expansionist policies in the Middle East is a “black hand behind” the Syrian Assad regime, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Shi’ite forces in Iran. In essence, Trump thinks that as long as the nature of the regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran remains the same, there can be no reconciliation between the United States and Iran. Thus, Trump’s ultimate goal on the Iranian issue is to seek Iran’s “regime change” by “pressing and promoting change”.
Second, Israel plays the role of an "assisting player"
On containing the Iran, Israel has always played an important role as an “assistance”. On the Iranian nuclear issue, Israel’s position has been completely different from that of the Obama administration. After the Iran nuclear agreement was reached, the “U.S.-Israel special relationship” fell into the “freezing point of history”. After Trump took office, he actively repaired the U.S.-Israel alliance and ensured Israel’s security has become the core fulcrum of U.S. Middle East policy. The United States did not hesitate to be against the world and decided to relocate the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem with great symbolic significance.
Israel has always regarded Iran as the most important security threat. According to the Israeli government’s Netanyahu’s view, Iran is a radical hostile force with regional hegemony ambitions. Manufacturing nuclear weapons is the ultimate goal of Iran’s nuclear program. Economic sanctions can hardly eliminate Iran’s determination of having nuclear weapons. A nuclear-armed Iran will form a "nuclear hedge" on military intervention by the United States or Israel, thereby forming regional hegemony and posing a deadly threat to Israel's national security. Therefore, it is necessary to contain it and even attack it.
Before Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, Netanyahu spoke in advance on April 30th and announced "new evidence" of Iran's development of nuclear weapons at key time points. Earlier this year, Israeli intelligence agency Mossad received a large number of files and electronic files of secret nuclear programs from Iran and was smuggled back to the country. According to the Israeli side's analysis of these intelligences, Ness insists that Iran’s “Project Amed” nuclear program is still advancing, accusing Iran of deceiving the international community. In a statement, Trump also said that Israel provided "convincing new evidence." Israeli’s "key evidence" has contributed to the decision-making of Trump.
Third, Triggering High Conflict Risk in the Middle East
Trump's "core policy circle" seems to agree with Israel's allegations of Iran's secret development of the nuclear program, which means that the United States and Iran have no prospect of a nuclear agreement again. The continued fermentation of the Iranian nuclear crisis will trigger a series of chain effects in the Middle East.
Firstly, Iran restarted the uranium enrichment project. Prior to the conclusion of the Iran nuclear agreement in 2015, Iran’s uranium enrichment technology has made breakthrough progress. In general, whether or not 20% purity of enriched uranium can be extracted is an important technical parameter for determining the level of uranium enrichment. Obtaining enriched uranium with an abundance of 20% means completing nine-tenths of the nuclear-grade uranium refining work. From the perspective of the nuclear process itself, Iran has been able to continuously extract enriched uranium with an abundance of 20%, which means that it has initially possessed the capability to produce nuclear weapons. Iranian President Rohani has announced that he is ready to restart uranium enrichment projects. However, he also stated that he will temporarily stay in the nuclear agreement and continue to cooperate with the top five countries except the United States. In the future, the diplomatic efforts of the five major countries will play a crucial role in the prospects of Iran’s nuclear program.
Secondly, the situation of Israel and Iran fighting against each other is escalating. At present, relations between Iran and Iran are constantly deteriorating. Israel stated that on May 10, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard external team “Quds Force” fired about 20 rockets into the Golan Heights, and then Israel launched a revenge attack on Iran’s military facilities in Syria. After the United States withdraws from the Iranian nuclear agreement, Trump’s supportive position on Israel will contribute to Israel’s anti-Iraqi sentiment, and it will easily lead to an escalation of military conflict between the two sides, thus sliding toward the critical point of war and peace.
Thirdly, the rebound in oil prices exacerbated the risk of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Iran is OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, and it occupies the Gulf oil pipeline, the Hormuz Strait. At present, Iran’s oil production is approximately 3.8 million barrels per day, while oil exports exceed 2 million barrels per day. After the United States imposes sanctions again, Iran’s oil exports will be significantly reduced, and international oil prices will continue to rebound. Iran’s “de-capacity” will benefit Russia, Saudi Arabia and other oil-exporting countries. The increase in fiscal surplus will undoubtedly allow Russia and Saudi Arabia to pursue a more active intervention policy in the Middle East, which will further complicate the geopolitical pattern in the Middle East.
To sum up, the United States’ eating its own words and unilateral actions are in violation of the spirit of the international contract, which will prompt Iran to rethink the necessity and urgency of acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran is a big country in the Middle East. The escalation of the Iranian nuclear crisis will aggravate the uncertainty in the development of the situation in the Middle East.
（The author is the reseach fellow of NADS, RUC）
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