[Beijing News] Diao Daming: Why Does Trump have to Grab the Last Chance to Build the Border Wall even at the Expense of Government Shutdown?

The U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order on December 18 declaring a partial federal government shutdown on December 24 and making related arrangements.

December 21 will be the last day before the provisional appropriation bill expires. By then, if the President and both houses of Congress cannot reach an agreement on government grants, the fiscal spending of the federal government is likely to be in shortage temporarily. Trump's move was apparently made to cope with this situation in advance.

It’s noteworthy that December 18 was three legislative days before the provisional appropriation bill expires, which means that both parties have not completely lost the room for maneuver. Therefore, the act of shutdown made by the Trump administration in advance is out of at least two reasons.

On one hand, the federal government is about to be closed for a holiday on December 25, so the shutdown a day earlier on December 24 with the excuse of “the extension of the holiday” will not only reduce the negative effect of the shutdown, but will also create more room for it to reach a compromise. On the other hand, the advance unleash of the worst plan also shows the government’s attitude that it can accept the worst result and has no regrets about or fear of the shutdown in order to achieve the goal.  

Trump's target is still the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. The Trump administration hopes to provide $5 billion spending from the total appropriations in fiscal 2019 for the border wall, but the Democratic base in the Congress only agreed to allocate $1.3 billion used for border controls. Such a huge price difference really disappointed Trump, so he had to impose extreme pressure. 

Trump's act of partial government shutdown is probably intended to exert pressure on both houses and parties of Congress, in hope of realizing a compromise benefiting himself most in the end.

According to past experience, there is no winner in a shutdown crisis. People may blame the Congress, the White House, the Democrats and Republicans because of it. A latest opinion poll also indicates that if it comes to a standstill, 40% of the Americans will consider it a responsibility of Trump and his Republicans, while 20% will attribute it to the Democrats.  

In other words, if it comes to a standstill in the end, all parties will bear great public opinion pressure. As the shutdown prolongs, the responsibility can be actually shifted to the Congress, who has the right of resuming the operation of governmental departments through legislation. By then, the Congress must face the growing pressure from public opinions, and may further reach a compromise with Trump on expenses in border controls. The big goal of $5 billion may not be realized, but it’s likely to be more than $1.3 billion.

It is worth emphasizing that if this potential shutdown crisis extends to the end of the holiday next year (When the new term of Congress will come into power), it may lead to a real governmental standstill from the current so-called “technical shutdown” because the new Congress may find it hard to review the bill quickly.  

Even under the ultimate compromise of congressmen at both houses and both parties, the appropriation plan can be once again extended to January-February 2019, but it may only slow down the timer of a time bomb. Even worse, if it overlaps the imminent debt ceiling problem on March 1, a larger political crisis is bound to be touch-and-go.    

Interestingly, the Carter administration once encountered three governmental standstills, but Trump viewed the shutdown as a pressure tactic and depicted it as an act of glory to safeguard the conservative stance, which is not a common case.  

The normalization and instrumentation of government shutdown is also another embodiment of the abnormal use of presidential power by Trump. However, even if the operation can temporarily benefit a party, there is no doubt that it will inevitably lose Americans’ trust in the government.

Diao Daming, Research Fellow of National Academy of Development and Strategy, Associate Professor at School of International Studies, RUC.

Original link: http://www.bjnews.com.cn/opinion/2018/12/20/532044.html