LIU Chang: Positive Factors Accumulated in China's Q1 2024 GDP Gathering Momentum for High-quality Development

LIU Chang, a research fellow at the National Academy of Development and Strategy of Renmin University of China, focused on the performance of the Chinese economy in the first quarter of 2024 in an interview with reporters from People’s Daily Online. He conducted an analysis and outlook of the national economy from the perspectives of macroeconomic data and market trends. The main points are as follows:

Firstly, he pointed out some positive economic factors such as manufacturing growth and accelerated value-added growth in high-tech manufacturing. Despite some areas showing promising performance, there are also challenges, such as the lingering risks in the real estate markets of certain regions, the gap between manufacturing and service sector growth, and the uncertainty in the international situation.

Secondly, he reminded to adopt a rational approach towards the disparity between macroeconomic data and personal perceptions. Although the recovery in manufacturing production has played a leading role in economic growth, the recovery in sectors such as consumption and real estate has not fully materialized. The momentum of recovery in the consumption market has slowed down, and the real estate markets in some areas have yet to stabilize completely. Therefore, it is necessary to objectively assess the gap between personal perceptions and macroeconomic data.

Lastly, he looked ahead to the macroeconomic situation in the next stage. He suggested that while maintaining a certain level of investment intensity, emphasis should be placed on household income and housing price expectations. This could be achieved through substantive policy measures to enhance household income expectations, improve consumer sentiment, and increase actual consumption levels, thereby making the foundation of macroeconomic operation more stable and reliable.

In summary, he identified the positive factors and challenges of the Chinese economy in the first quarter and proposed strategies to address them. He emphasized the importance of adopting a rational perspective towards data and market trends, aiming to provide insights and suggestions for the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.

(Translated by ZHANG Yuqing; Proofread by YANG Fanxin)