09
DecOn December 7 and 8, one month after the Republican Party lost its majority in the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress during the midterm elections, the Trump administration announced several important personnel adjustments that concerned the future tendency of both domestic and foreign policies in the U.S.
The appointment of Heather Nauert shows Trump's neglect of the multilateral system
The first person exposed by media is most related with media, i.e. Heather Nauert, the incumbent spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, who is about to be nominated as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, replacing Nikki Haley, who will step down within this year. After Haley announced her departure in October, a few candidates, including Trump's eldest daughter Ivanka, have been the object of speculation by media, with 48-year-old Nauert always on the list.
Media that exposed Nauert’s imminent promotion is exactly Fox News, a channel she still served 20 months ago, and the program Fox & Friends with Nauert functioning as an anchor was Trump's favorite at that time.
Although she had 15 years of experience as an anchor and has served as the spokesperson for the State Department for one and a half years, it is yet to be seen whether Nauert is able to be qualified at the United Nations, the highest-level multilateral stage, and cope with all kinds of grievances from the international community about the Trump administration.
However, the nomination of Nauert not only follows the individualized trend starting from the Obama administration, which does not nominate professional diplomats or senior politicians, but directly dispatches trusted fellows to the United Nations, but also showcases Trump's personal style of only requiring a megaphone.
William Barr’s return sends signals to the Republican establishment
If the selection of Nauert reflects Trump’s neglect of the multilateral system, his decision to re-name William Barr, who served as Attorney General during the first Bush administration for two years, as the U.S. Attorney General is out of cautious consideration.
Almost in the past two years, Attorney General promoted the implementation of policies in migration and drug control, but Trump was most concerned with the progress of the investigation on the Russiagate scandal. Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigned on November 7 due to the avoidance of the probe on the scandal in order to keep himself out of troubles, leading to the long-term dissatisfaction of the White House. After that, to maintain control as much as possible, Trump even bypassed Rod Rosenstein, Deputy Attorney General of the U.S. Department of Justice, and appointed Matthew Whitaker, director of the Justice Department’s office, as Acting Attorney General. This move triggered a few Democratic congressmen to file suits against the White House for allegedly violating the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998.
Amid one after another risks, Trump turned to a safe nominee, William Barr, whose expertise can respond to any doubt. The return of such a politician from the former administration fully sends signals of solidarity and goodwill to the Republican establishment. The most important thing is that Barr's stance on strongly supporting the investigation on Hillary Clinton's email scandal and opposing against the probe on the Russiagate scandal can really reassure Trump.
However, the future may not be directed by Trump: On one hand, similar to Barr, Sessions was also a steadfast supporter of Trump in the beginning, but after Barr re-assumes office as Attorney General, it is yet to be confirmed whether he will have subtle changes like Sessions. On the other hand, although Special Counsel Robert Mueller was appointed by the Department of Justice, the possible space for Trump to control the related investigation by means of his control over the Department of Justice is too limited, and now it is unlikely to suspend the probe through personnel adjustments due to high attention from public opinions. Even if Barr is an excellent goalkeeper, it is also not easy for him to stop Mueller from continuously scoring in a boiling atmosphere.
The appointment of Mark Milley reveals White House's complex relationship with the military
On December 8, the second day after the announcement of the above two nominees, Trump announced that he would nominate Mark Milley, a four-star general in the United States Army and the Chief of Staff of the Army, to serve as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The nominee is out of question in profession and qualifications, and prior to it, the potential candidates of the successor to the current Chairman Joseph Dunford were Milley and David Goldfein, the Chief of Staff of the Air Force.
Yet, there are some details worth pondering: First, while establishing a good relationship with Milley in the War in Afghanistan, James Mattis, current United States Secretary of Defense, reportedly highly recommended Goldfein, which was not adopted by Trump eventually. You can imagine the subtle relationship from that.
Second, Dunford’s term will end next October, and according to the previous practice, the President will determine a new candidate between April and June that year. Now Trump announced a new nominee almost a year earlier in a situation where Dunford said for several times that he did not expect to step down in advance, so Trump's move obviously aims to weaken Dunford's power.
Generally, Trump's nomination basically indicates the subtle, complex and contradictory relationships between the White House and the military.
John Kelly’s successor indicates the future of Trump administration’s decision agenda
The last announcement actually did not come as a surprise: John Kelly, White House Chief of Staff, will exit his post by the end of this year. This personnel adjustment has been rumored for a while and repeated several times, but in the end the two have gone separate ways.
The main reason is that they may have different political opinions, or Kelly can no longer tolerate the current style of the White House. But if he leaves by year-end, Kelly’s tenure at the White House will at least be longer than 505 days for Alexander Haig, former White House Chief of Staff, becoming a crossover that will not fail too much.
Today, the biggest highlight is the successor to Kelly, and this candidate may get a glimpse of new combinations of Trump’s core policy-making circles as well as the future of the policy agenda. If the candidate is the rumored Nick Ayers, the chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, the rise of the latter’s power is almost a foregone conclusion.
Compared with the chain reshuffles at key posts such as Secretary of State, the National Security Advisor and Director of the Council of Economic Advisers, in March and April, this round of adjustments seem to better comply with the general law of presidential politics: The President will adjust the priorities of his administration and the team correspondingly after the midterm elections.
Under such logic, the change of the above four candidates may explain that Trump hopes to make more achievements in foreign affairs in a dilemma where the divided government has dragged the advance of internal policies and intensified related investigations. It remains to be seen what this change will bring to the world.
Diao Daming, Research Fellow of National Academy of Development and Strategy, RUC
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