Research Update
19
Jan
Chinese Modernization and the 15th Five-Year Plan
Q1
WANG WEI: "Chinese modernization" has become the core narrative of China's development. From the perspectives of ASEAN and Indonesia, how do you understand the main characteristics of "Chinese modernization"? How does it differ from Western modernization models? What does its success mean for developing countries? What important impacts will it have on the ASEAN region and the world?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:In my view, Chinese modernization—which has become the main framework of China's national development, especially after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party—has distinct characteristics that differentiate it from the Western model of modernization. One of its key features is the emphasis on harmony between material progress and cultural development, a strong commitment to ecological civilization, and a peaceful, non-hegemonic approach in international relations. Furthermore, China is attempting to modernize more than 1.4 billion people—an unprecedented scale in world history—which makes its model more complex and significant, while continuously striving to achieve common prosperity for all its citizens.In contrast, the Western model of modernization historically prioritizes rapid industrialization followed by political liberalization. Chinese modernization, on the other hand, is guided by state-led strategies within a socialist market economy. While the Western model often links modernization to liberal democracy and free markets, China instead integrates Confucian values and a centralized governance structure into its development process. Moreover, China emphasizes national sovereignty and rejects the idea that modernization must follow the Western path.From my perspective, the success of Chinese modernization carries important implications for developing countries. It presents an alternative model that focuses on infrastructure development, industrial upgrading, and technology transfer without imposing political conditions. This differs from the Western model, which often insists on political prerequisites such as democratization and market liberalization for developing nations. Such an approach is now seen as less attractive and even opposed, as it violates the principles of sovereignty and non-intervention that have long been core values and the spirit of ASEAN. For ASEAN countries and others in the Global South, Chinese modernization offers an opportunity to collaborate in achieving shared prosperity without the fear of political interference, which is often a condition set by Western powers.
Q2
WANG WEI:The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China charted the grand blueprint of advancing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through Chinese modernization. China is currently formulating its 15th Five-Year Plan. Based on past experience, which key areas mentioned in the plan are you more focused on (e.g., technological innovation, green transition, industrial upgrading, domestic demand stimulation)? How will these priorities shape China's future economic structure and development direction?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:I am more focused on the green transition, given the current and concerning state of global warming. Therefore, in my view, China's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 will have a significantly positive impact on reducing global warming. As one of the world’s largest economic powers, China's initiative certainly deserves appreciation—especially considering President Trump's decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. In fact, in his speech at the UN in September 2025, President Trump even criticized renewable energy programs, deeming them expensive and inefficient. In my opinion, the priorities established during the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will affect not only China's domestic economy but also global trade and investment flows, particularly in the Asia region.
Q3
WANG WEI:Indonesia has its "Golden Indonesia 2045 Vision." In your view, what are the potential areas of synergy between China's 15th Five-Year Plan and Indonesia's long-term development strategies? How should both sides strengthen policy communication and alignment of development plans to achieve mutual benefit and win-win outcomes?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:In my view, the 2045 Golden Indonesia Vision shares many similarities with China's 15th Five-Year Plan. Both countries emphasize infrastructure development as a foundation for national transformation. China, which is highly advanced in terms of infrastructure, can serve as a reference for Indonesia, including through participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework that China initiated in September 2013. In addition, both nations are currently promoting the development of the digital economy, which opens opportunities for collaboration in areas such as 5G networks, e-commerce, and artificial intelligence. To realize these goals, both countries need to strengthen policy communication and strategic alignment, including conducting regular high-level dialogues, establishing joint research and development centers, and creating a coordinated investment framework. If these initiatives can be implemented, they will undoubtedly yield mutual benefits and contribute to regional stability and prosperity.
Q4
WANG WEI:Chinese modernization emphasizes "pursuing development on a path of peaceful development." How do you view the impact of China's transition in its economic growth model (e.g., from high-speed growth to high-quality development) on supply chains, investment patterns in the Asia-Pacific region, and global economic stability.
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:As one of the major global economic powers, China's transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development—focusing on innovation, green growth, and domestic consumption—has had a significant impact on both regional and global economic dynamics. In the context of global supply chains, this transition has driven the relocation of labor-intensive industries to Southeast Asia, creating new growth opportunities for countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam. Moreover, the shifting pattern of investment—marked by the increasing flow of Chinese capital into high-tech, sustainable, and service-based sectors across the Asia-Pacific region—has also had a positive effect on the region’s economic growth. Globally, this development model enhances economic stability by reducing environmental risks, strengthening resilience against shocks, and promoting balanced long-term growth—although ongoing tensions with Western countries and the potential fragmentation of global standards remain challenges.
China-ASEAN Relations
Q1
WANG WEI:In 2025, cooperation between China and ASEAN in multiple fields is thriving, trade volume is steadily increasing, and the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has been upgraded to the 3.0 version stage. The positive cooperation between China and ASEAN brings new opportunities for regional stability, security, and development. How do you assess the development of China-ASEAN relations? What suggestions do you have for China and ASEAN to jointly build a community with a shared future?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:China–ASEAN cooperation has continued to deepen in 2025, particularly with the advancement of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, which marks an important step toward regional economic integration and shared development. This initiative not only strengthens trade relations but also promotes regional stability, connectivity, and shared prosperity. To further build a community with a shared future, both parties need to enhance strategic trust, align policy frameworks—such as the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—and prioritize cooperation in areas such as the digital economy, green development, public health, and education. Strengthening people-to-people exchanges and institutional connectivity is also essential to ensure that the benefits are distributed equitably and sustainably across all member states.
Q2
WANG WEI:How do you evaluate the Global Security Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, and the Global Governance Initiative proposed by China? What are the views of ASEAN and Indonesia regarding these four major initiatives put forward by China?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:The four global initiatives proposed by China—namely the Global Security Initiative (GSI), the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), and the Global Governance Initiative（GGI）—represent Beijing’s efforts to shape a more balanced and multipolar world order based on the principles of mutual respect and non-intervention. From the perspective of ASEAN and Indonesia, these initiatives have generally been received positively, as they align with regional values that emphasize peace, development, and inclusive cooperation. The GDI, for example, is highly relevant to ASEAN's development goals, while the GSI reflects the region’s priority on conflict resolution through dialogue. However, in order for these initiatives to gain stronger support in the region, China must ensure transparency in implementation, inclusive engagement of all stakeholders, and respect for ASEAN centrality and local contexts in determining the direction of cooperation.
China-Indonesia Relations
Q1
WANG WEI:This year marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Indonesia and the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference. How do you evaluate the current state of China-Indonesia relations? How can the two countries better deepen their mutually beneficial cooperation and friendly relations?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:At present, Indonesia–China relations are characterized by sustained strength and progressive development, underpinned by significant public support. Empirical data from multiple surveys indicate that the Indonesian populace perceives China as a key actor in both regional and global affairs.To further advance mutually beneficial cooperation, both nations should intensify high-level political dialogue, facilitate deeper people-to-people exchanges, and enhance coordination on regional and global policy agendas. Additionally, aligning Indonesia’s long-term development agenda—such as the Indonesia 2045 Vision—with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could significanty reinforce economic ties. Expanding collaboration in key sectors such as renewable energy, public health, and sustainable development will be essential to cultivating a resilient, forward-looking, and comprehensive bilateral partnership.Under multilateral frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), what specific cooperation opportunities exist between China and Indonesia in areas like higher education collaboration, trade and investment, and industrial chain cooperation?
Q2
WANG WEI:Under multilateral frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), what specific cooperation opportunities exist between China and Indonesia in areas like higher education collaboration, trade and investment, and industrial chain cooperation?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:Within the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Indonesia and China have significant opportunities to further deepen their cooperation. For example, in the field of higher education, both countries can develop joint research programs, academic mobility initiatives, and capacity-building efforts in science, technology, and innovation. In the area of trade, the two countries can promote collaboration among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to enable their integration into regional value chains. In terms of industrial chain cooperation, Indonesia and China can align their manufacturing and digital economy sectors, particularly in areas such as electric vehicles, green technology, and smart infrastructure. Through strategic collaboration under the RCEP framework, China and Indonesia can jointly promote regional economic resilience, inclusive growth, and sustainable development.
Summary and Outlook
WANG WEI:Looking ahead, in your view, how will China's development (Chinese modernization and the "15th Five-Year Plan"), China-Indonesia relations, and China-ASEAN relations jointly shape a better future for the Asia-Pacific region and the world over the next 5-10 years?
Humprey Arnaldo Russel:In my perspective, China's development over the next 5–10 years is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the future trajectory and regional dynamics of the Asia-Pacific and the broader global landscape. Within the framework of China-Indonesia and China-ASEAN relations, the outlook remains positive, driven by a strong mutual commitment to preserving regional peace and political stability. Moreover, there is a shared strategic aspiration among stakeholders to foster a more interconnected, inclusive, and resilient region, while simultaneously advancing global cooperation in addressing pressing transnational challenges such as climate change and digital transformation.